The Minimal severe weather risk indicates areas with non-severe thunderstorms that may be locally severe. This risk is also used to define areas at risk of Lake Effect thunderstorms in southern Ontario.

Within a Minimal severe weather risk, the following probabilities can be expected:
2% tornado
5% hail
5% wind

This risk can only be written on the Day 1 Outlook, but such forecasts made on Day 2 and Day 3 outlooks may be outlined, but not defined.